The trade possibilities for Nolan Arenado could significantly impact the St. Louis Cardinals, and here's why it's a topic that stirs strong opinions among fans and analysts alike. Rumors surrounding Arenado's potential departure have been a constant buzz in the baseball community for years. As the third baseman for the Cardinals, there is widespread anticipation that he will be traded this offseason. The pressing question on everyone's mind, however, is about his current value, particularly given his steep decline since securing third place in the MVP race back in 2022.
Previously, Arenado had rebuffed a move to the Houston Astros during last offseason, but it appears he might now be more open to considering different teams as he nears the final stages of his career. This change in attitude leaves the Cardinals with the difficult task of navigating the trade market to determine what they might receive in exchange for their star third baseman. Interestingly, insights from a previous trade could provide clarity on this situation.
The recent deal involving Willson Contreras moving to the Boston Red Sox serves as a relevant reference point for the Cardinals to gauge what they can expect if they decide to trade Arenado. In this trade, the Cardinals did not acquire any elite talent from the Red Sox. Instead, they successfully bolstered their team's depth and filled some critical gaps within their roster. For instance, Hunter Dobbins has the potential to develop into a reliable back-end starter or bullpen option at a cost-effective salary, while Yhoiker Fajardo brings some promise due to his prospect status. Additionally, Blake Aita adds untested depth to the organization’s ranks. It seems that Chaim Bloom, the Red Sox's chief baseball officer, is prioritizing pitching improvements following a challenging season compounded by injuries among their minor league pitchers. With Arenado, the Cardinals might find that enhancing their roster's foundation could hold more value than merely aiming for an elite outcome.
However, this entire scenario hinges on the Cardinals' willingness to absorb some of Arenado's remaining salary. He is owed a substantial $31 million over the next two seasons, making him a less appealing addition for prospective teams. Any team expressing interest in Arenado is likely to request a reduction in his salary as a condition for moving forward with a trade. For context, Contreras—who possesses a more dependable long-term value—still required the Cardinals to send some cash along with him to Boston to make the deal work. By sending $8 million, Bloom was able to secure a top 30 prospect from the Red Sox organization, which raises the question: could the Cardinals achieve a similar outcome? To do so, they may need to consider eating a larger portion of Arenado's contract—perhaps between $15 to $20 million—if they wish to maximize their return. Therefore, one can expect a trade for Arenado to mirror the structure of the Contreras deal, highly contingent on how much financial flexibility both Bloom and the Cardinals’ ownership are willing to negotiate in the process.
What do you think? Could the Cardinals strike a better deal for Arenado, or do you believe they’ll struggle to find a suitable trade partner without subsidizing his salary? Join the discussion below!
