In a move that might seem counterintuitive amidst global political upheaval, OPEC+ is poised to maintain its oil production levels through the first quarter of 2026, according to insights from multiple delegates and industry insiders (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-keep-oil-output-steady-despite-turmoil-among-members-sources-say-2026-01-04/). But here's where it gets controversial: despite the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the U.S. (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Markets-Brace-for-Supply-Squeeze-After-US-Captures-Nicols-Maduro.html) and a highly publicized rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the cartel’s stance on output remains unchanged. This decision comes as eight key OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—agreed in November to halt planned production increases for January through March, citing weaker seasonal demand.
The backdrop to this decision is a staggering 18% drop in oil prices in 2025, the sharpest decline since the pandemic, driven by oversupply from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers, coupled with slowing demand and forecasts of a significant glut in 2026. Analysts argue that with such market conditions, there’s little incentive for the group to increase production anytime soon.
Venezuela, despite holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves, currently contributes less than 1% to global supply. While U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested American oil companies could invest billions to rebuild Venezuela’s energy infrastructure (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-03/trump-says-us-oil-producers-to-invest-billions-in-venezuela), experts agree that any substantial increase in production would take years. For now, OPEC+ delegates downplay the immediate impact of Caracas’ developments on supply policy, though they acknowledge it could become a factor later in the year.
Adding to the complexity, the meeting coincides with rare public friction between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Yemen, where the two allies have backed opposing factions. Recent Saudi-led airstrikes and the UAE’s withdrawal of forces highlight the strain, yet history shows OPEC has weathered far worse—from the Iran-Iraq war to sanctions on major producers (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Set-to-Keep-Oil-Production-Policy-Despite-Saudi-UAE-Spat.html).
And this is the part most people miss: OPEC+’s focus on price stability overshadows geopolitical tensions. By holding output steady, the group aims to navigate oversupplied markets, fragile demand, and a volatile geopolitical landscape. But is this strategy sustainable? As the cartel prioritizes stability, will it risk alienating members or missing opportunities in a shifting energy market?
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com. For more insights, explore these top reads:
- Top Chinese Offshore Gas Field Ships 100th Oil Cargo (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Top-Chinese-Offshore-Gas-Field-Ships-100th-Oil-Cargo.html)
- Coal Remains King in India While Exports Optimize Domestic Stock (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Coal-Remains-King-in-India-While-Exports-Optimize-Domestic-Stock.html)
- India to Leverage Russian Oil Import Data in Trade Deal Negotiations (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/India-to-Leverage-Russian-Oil-Import-Data-in-Trade-Deal-Negotiations.html)
Thought-provoking question for our readers: With OPEC+ prioritizing price stability over geopolitical turmoil, is this a prudent strategy, or are they underestimating the long-term risks of internal divisions and external pressures? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
